FELIPE ALMEIDA

Key findings

• The opening of the Elizabeth Line brings vitality to the rental market in less well-connected southeast London, with a significantly increasing rental price.
• In the 14 boroughs through which the Elizabeth line passes, there are 11 boroughs with significant price increases in the short-term rental market but only 5 in the long-term rental market.

• Between 2020 and 2022, the short-term rental price (Airbnb) grew by 26.6%, and the long-term rental price only increased by 4.1%.  
• The stations with the highest percentage increase at a 1 km radius are Hanwell, Goodmayes, Southall, Hayes & Harlington and Heathrow Central.
• The top three fare zones in London with the highest growth in median prices were Zone 5, Zone 1, and Zone 6, with increasing rates of 35%, 32%, and 31%, respectively.

• An analysis of advertised descriptions of Airbnb listings revealed that in 2020, only 14 hosts used the Elizabeth line in their house descriptions. However, by 2022, that number had increased to 270, representing an increased rate of 94.8%.
• The median price of Airbnb listings within a 1 km radius of the underground stations between 2020 and 2022 increased a 41.41%. Similarly, at 1-2 km and 2 km radius, the median price increased by 25.61% and 33.33%, respectively.

Rental Housing Market

Looking at both long-term and short-term rental markets, we could see four boroughs where the increasing rate exceeds the general in both. These are “Newham”, “Havering”, “Barking and Dagenham”, and “Camden”, and three of them are in south-eastern London. This finding shows that the Elizabeth Line has strengthened the links between southeast and central London and has given the southeast a vibrant rental market. 

The Impact on Short-Term Rental Market

Stations Aproach

After calculating the median price per night at a 1 km radius from each station (Figure 2), the top 5 stations with the greater increase between 2020 and 2022 are located in zone 4, 5 and 6 of London. The top 3 stations are mono connection line stations, which means that the Elizabeth line is the only line available in those stations, in contrast to the multiple connection line stations, which have more than one line available or are connected to other transport services. The top 5 stations are: 1. Hanwell: 102.4% (Zone 4, monoline), 2. Goodmayes: 91.4% (Zone 4, monoline), 3. Southall: 90.5% (Zone 4, monoline), 4. Hayes & Harlington: 73.3% (Zone 5, multiline) and 5. Heathrow Central: 71.2% (Zone 6, multiline).

Zone Aproach

To further investigate the impact of the Elizabeth line on housing prices, another analysis was conducted based on London’s fare zones. The London transport system divides the city into different zones, each with a different fare. The zone fare data from MyLondon (London datastore) was spatially matched with the Airbnb listings by their locations. The median was used to calculate the average house prices, and the price variation between 2020 and 2022. This analysis suggests that the Elizabeth line could significantly impact short-term housing prices in London. The study of fare zones indicates that the median short-term house prices have increased significantly in areas where the Elizabeth line crosses, particularly in Zone 5.

As a primarily residential area in Portsmouth, Paulsgrove features a mix of private and social housing accommodating a diverse population. Its flat terrain and range of amenities make it ideal for daily commuting and recreation. However, despite appearing self-sufficient, Paulsgrove lacks efficient connectivity to the city centre and nearby neighborhoods through public transport and active travel modes.

Quieter Route is designed to provide a safe and low-speed street for active travel, connecting local businesses, Cosham and the Hilsea Lines. While this route does have some street lighting, it has been noted that it may not be adequate, which could be a concern for those travelling at night. Despite this, the Quieter Route is considered the safest road for active travel, and its focus on supporting local businesses makes it an attractive option for those who want to engage with their community while commuting.

Faster Route is designed for people who need to get to work quickly and efficiently. This route is an important part of day-to-day life for many people, and it sees a lot of activity. However, safety is a concern on this route due to its high-speed street, and it is important for travellers to exercise caution while using it. The focus of this route is on improving accessibility and providing a reliable commute option for those who need to get to work or other important appointments.

Leisure Route is a great option for those who want to enjoy a more relaxed and scenic commute. This route has little to no traffic, making it a peaceful journey that allows travellers to enjoy lots of green space and interact with the natural environment. The focus of this route is on improving quality of life and providing clean air, making it an attractive option for those who prioritize a healthy lifestyle. However, it is worth noting that this route is not open on weekends as it is a private area, so it may not be a suitable option for everyone.

In order to address the multifaceted challenges and problems facing the Paulsgrove region, we propose a comprehensive strategy encompassing both infrastructural and cultural changes. With regards to infrastructural changes, we will focus primarily on weekdays to introduce and enhance physical infrastructure that facilitates sustainable and active modes of transport. This includes the development of dedicated cycling and walking paths, improved street lighting and traffic calming measures. However, we recognize that building a stronger sense of community requires more than just physical infrastructure. To this end, we propose a set of cultural solutions to be implemented during weekends. These solutions will aim to promote community engagement, social activities and events that strengthen bonds between residents, encourage inclusivity and improve the overall quality of life.

Long-term proposals

The Leisure Route is not included as part of the proposed solution package due to its private status and weekend closure. As a result, the proposed solutions focus on the Quieter and Faster Routes, which offer distinct advantages and challenges for active travel and daily commuting. Thus, the four long-term solutions are distributed according to the social, environmental, and urban context of each route, providing crucial elements to increase active travel in those areas .

Children Engagement

The proposal is to create two types of cycling activities: the bike bus for weekdays and the cycling routes for kids on weekends because there is more availability of parents to engage in this activity and promote it as a special day. Therefore, four main schools in the northwest region were identified to be selected for the first implementation round. France and Portugal have the same dynamic, connect the student’s home to Schools. However, the proposal is to bring a new approach: if the schools were the connection between student’s and Hilsea Lines? As a leisure activity to teach kids about the importance of natural resources, the connection with natural environment aims to build new perspective for Portsmouth future.

Mobility flows are complex, and people have various reasons for their travels, such as going to their jobs or schools. These routines usually happen on weekdays, creating a clear pattern that we can represent with a linear relationship with people’s origin and destination flows. However, not all travel fits this pattern. The citizens also commute for leisure, sports, healthcare, and other reasons that do not follow a predictable schedule. Thus, we need different tools to handle the irregularity to grasp these more complex movements. One promising tool is neural networking, which can better comprehend and predict these intricate movements with a non-linear relationship analysis.

Methodology

This study relies on three primary datasets: Locomizer, Point of Interest, and Census 2021. Locomizer serves as the central component of the analysis, with the aggregated origin and destination flow for London within hexagons as geographic area units. The hexagon ID serves as the primary index, and 3.2. Data 25 to ensure coherence, the remaining datasets are incorporated into this index via an area-weighted spatial join.

The dataset applied in this study contains aggregated data at level 9, with each dataset file including more than 4 million rows. The careful cleaning of this dataset emerged as an essential requirement to ensure the integrity of subsequent analyses. Hexagons play a key role in understanding spatial relationships, particularly mobility flows. Despite the computational limitation of running the spatial interaction model to deal with a high amount of data, it required a transition from hexagonal level 9 to level 7. This transformation was facilitated through the H3 package in Python. At level 9, a hexagon has a relatively small area, approximately 0.10 square kilometres. In contrast, at level 7, a hexagon covers a significantly larger area, approximately 5.16 square kilometres.

Hexagons at level 7 in London have 415 hexagons, resulting in 172,225 possible origin and destination flow combinations. Consequently, the dataset concerning work and workflows displays a distinct distribution. This distinction arises because workflows constitute only a fraction of the overall flow. As a result, this dataset showcases both a reduced maximum value and a lower mean value. This value difference leads to a more balanced workflow data distribution, as the accompanying graph shows. Furthermore, the distance from the mean (standard deviation) is notably smaller. Therefore, the values shown in the graphs are presented in logarithmic scale to accommodate the dataset’s extensive size and prevent value distortion.

Results

The map illustrates the spatial distribution of Points of Interest (POI) in London, categorising them into work-related and non-workrelated. It becomes evident that their distribution across the city exhibits a degree of similarity, predominantly concentrating in inner London instead of outer London. However, it is worth emphasising that the total number of points differs significantly due to the non-work category that contains four distinct POI groups. The POI values for non-work are also correlated with mobility flow values distribution, as the proportions remain consistent.

Examining the workflows illustrated on the left in red, it becomes apparent that both models exhibit a similar pattern of flow concentration in central London. However, there is a significant distinction: the SIM model tends to overestimate some of the flows, with disparities varying from 0.15 to 0.30 compared to the Observed Flows. In contrast, the DG model’s flow estimations closely align with the distribution of the Observed Flows, reinforcing the significance of its low RMSE value.

Shifting our focus to the non-work flows shown on the right in blue, we observe a different outcome. At this level 7 of Uber hexagons, the Spatial Interaction Model displays greater accuracy in estimating non-work flow data, consistent with its previously noted low RMSE value. In contrast, the Deep Gravity Model tends to overestimate the flows, with disparities ranging between 0.5 and 0.6 compared to the Observed Flows. These spatial insights 4.3. Discussion 51 further illustrate both models’ nuanced performance characteristics regarding their strengths and limitations in different flow scenarios.

Attractiveness factor

The attractiveness factor utilised in the Spatial Interaction Model for Work and Non-workflows was constructed based on the categories within the POI dataset. In the context of Workflows,the analysis revealed that Public Infrastructure(PI), Transport(TR), and Education and Health (EH) emerged as the most significant variables in the data collected from Mobility Data.In contrast,for the Non-work attractiveness factor,the primary variables align with those of the Workflows, except for Retail(RT).